
Gold
On Monday, gold prices experienced their fourth consecutive daily decline as the market adjusted its expectations for a November rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The strong dollar and rising US Treasury yields—surpassing 4% for the first time in two months—added pressure on gold prices.
At one point, gold briefly fell below $2,640 per ounce. By the close, gold had dropped 0.40%, settling at $2,642.46 per ounce.
Alberto Musalem, the newly appointed President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, expressed support for a cautious approach to rate cuts. Meanwhile, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, noted that the US labor market remains strong, and the goal is to preserve this strength through measured rate reductions.
These developments supported the dollar, which hovered near a seven-week high. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note also surged past 4%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, thus reducing its appeal for investors.
According to CME’s “FedWatch Tool,” the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November stands at 87.3%, while the likelihood of maintaining current rates is 12.7%. The probability of a 50 basis point cut has now fallen to zero.
FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer noted that developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and US inflation data could influence gold’s trajectory this week. Investors will continue to monitor Fed speeches and geopolitical events today.
Gold Technical Analysis:
Gold initially rose before retreating on Monday. The price rebounded from the $2,640 level during European trading hours, briefly surpassing $2,652 before pulling back.
During the US session, prices dropped sharply to $2,637 before stabilizing and entering a consolidation phase, eventually closing near $2,644. The market continues to experience broad price swings as both bullish and bearish forces compete.

Today’s Focus:
- Strategy: Focus on selling into rallies, with opportunities to buy on dips.
- Resistance Levels: $2,660 – $2,665
- Support Levels: $2,630 – $2,625
Oil
Oil prices surged by more than 3% on Monday as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, coupled with the impact of Hurricane Milton, fueled strong upward momentum.
Brent crude reclaimed the $80 per barrel mark. WTI crude gained $2.76, or 3.7%, to close at $77.14 per barrel, while Brent crude rose $2.88, or 3.7%, to settle at $80.93 per barrel.
Israeli media cited an unnamed US security official stating that Israel would soon respond to Iran’s October 1 missile strike. Speculation has arisen regarding a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil fields. US President Joe Biden said last week that he was considering alternatives beyond attacking oil fields as part of Israel’s response.
Hurricane Milton, which rapidly strengthened to a Category 5 storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, also contributed to oil’s price rise. The hurricane is moving toward Florida and could disrupt oil supplies from the Gulf region.
On Tuesday, early reports suggested that Israel’s air force had struck Iran, although this was not confirmed by major news outlets at the time of writing. Investors should continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely.
Oil Technical Analysis:
Oil prices maintained strong momentum throughout Monday, rising steadily. In European trading, the price surged past $74 per barrel and continued to climb above $75.5, setting a new recent high.
During the US session, prices pulled back briefly to $75 before resuming an upward trajectory, ultimately closing near $78.4. The daily chart shows a strong bullish breakout with sustained upward momentum.

Today’s Focus:
- Strategy: Focus on buying into dips, with opportunities to sell on rallies.
- Resistance Levels: $78.5 – $79.0
- Support Levels: $76.5 – $76.0
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Disclaimer
This information contained in this blog is for general reference only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or an invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. It does not consider any specific recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation. Past performance references are not reliable indicators of future performance. Doo Prime and its affiliates make no representations or warranties about the accuracy or completeness of this information and accept no liability for any losses or damages resulting from its use or from any investments made based on it.
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