For weeks, markets have been running on fumes.
The US shutdown froze critical data, including the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Now, with odds rising for a reopening this week, traders are staring down a potential triple release of delayed data that could shake everything from gold to the dollar.
No NFPs, no CPI, no guidance, just silence.
That’s why the next data drop could be the loudest one this year.
Gold’s “Tourists” Just Got Washed Out
Take a look at this chart from BofA Global Research:
It shows record outflows from gold funds, roughly $59 billion in the past four months.
Meanwhile, in trading slang, this is when the “tourists” leave the market. The short-term, trend-chasing crowd that panics at every pullback.
Historically, that’s exactly when professionals start buying back in.
And that’s what could be happening now: gold prices are stabilizing and pushing higher again as weak-data expectations return to center stage.
Why Weak Jobs Data Could be Bullish for Gold and Stocks
Here’s what traders are thinking:
- If the upcoming NFP report shows slower job growth, it may hint that the economy is cooling.
- That could lead investors to rethink the Fed’s next move, possibly expecting higher rate cuts soon.
- When that happens, bond yields often shift, and attention tends to move back toward assets like gold or equities.
- These changes could also impact negatively the US dollar.
In short: bad news could be good news again.
When Will the Delayed Data Drop?
Once the US shutdown ends and government reopens, federal agencies will scramble to catch up.
We’re looking at roughly six weeks of economic reports waiting to hit the tape.
The September jobs report, originally due on October 3, should come out within days of reopening, offering the first look at how the labor market held up through late summer.
But it won’t end there.
The Labor Department is still weeks behind on October’s employment and inflation figures, meaning the next payrolls release could come about two weeks later.
Surveys like unemployment and consumer prices may take even longer, potentially leaving the Fed without fresh inflation data ahead of its December 10 meeting.
In short: once US shutdown ends, expect a flurry of delayed data that could send markets into overdrive.
Extreme Fear is a Contrarian Signal
According to CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, the market is currently deep in “Extreme Fear” territory, scoring 21 out of 100.
Historically, extreme fear is a contrarian indicator; it often marks the point where selling exhaustion peaks and smart money starts to buy.
As Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
With sentiment this depressed, any positive catalyst, like easing job data or dovish Fed hints, could spark a sharp relief rally once the data blackout ends.
US Shutdown Starved the Market of Data
Without the NFP, markets have been trading on speculation.
Traders can’t price in what they can’t measure, and that’s why volatility has been compressed for weeks.
Once the US shutdown ends, there’s a strong chance of:
- Sharp currency swings in the USD pairs
- Bond yield recalibration based on job strength or weakness
- Sector rotations in equities as rate expectations shift
When the first batch of jobs data hits, expect algo-driven chaos, followed by a new trend forming once dust settles.
Why This US Shutdown Could Be Bigger
This isn’t just about one NFP report.
It’s about months of pent-up market positioning being released in one go.
A synchronized drop of September, October, and November data would mean traders suddenly get a three-month reality check on the US economy in a single week.
That’s the definition of a volatility catalyst.
Possible Market Scenarios after the US Shutdown Ends
| Scenario | NFP Result |
| Weaker Jobs Growth | Confirms slowdown |
| Stronger Jobs Growth | Delays rate cuts |
| Mixed Data | Unclear Fed outlook |
Either way, trading volume will surge, and “safe-haven” assets like gold and silver could dominate headlines.
The Calm Before the Data Storm
Record outflows in gold.
Extreme fear in equities.
And a flood of delayed data ready to hit the tape.
The chart tells the story. “Tourists” have been flushed out of gold, but smart money is already positioning for the rebound.
With the US economy facing delayed data shocks and the Fed ready to pivot at the first sign of weakness, the stage is set for a gold and equity breakout once Washington turns the lights back on.
So buckle up.
When the shutdown ends, the data storm begins, and markets won’t stay quiet for long.
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