Market Recap
On Tuesday, gold extended its rally, breaking above $3,800/oz for the first time and hitting a record high of $3,834.03/oz. Multiple factors supported the surge, including Fed rate cut bets, concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, and rising geopolitical tensions.
Oil, however, fell sharply, with WTI near $63.14/barrel after a 3% drop, as OPEC+ signaled plans to increase output in November and Iraq’s Kurdish region resumed oil exports via Turkey, boosting global supply prospects.
Gold
Gold surged past $3,800 on Monday, reaching a historic peak as safe-haven demand grew amid political and economic risks.
David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, said: “Safe-haven demand linked to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown was one driver of gold. The dollar faced some pressure, which further supported precious metals.”
President Trump was set to meet with congressional leaders late Monday to negotiate government funding. Without an agreement, the federal government would shut down starting Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Russia’s defense ministry claimed control of Shandryholove village in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, adding to geopolitical stress. Gold has already risen more than 43% YTD, thriving in low-rate and uncertain environments.
Friday’s PCE inflation index matched expectations, reinforcing confidence in Fed rate cuts at the October and December meetings. Meger added: “The PCE data didn’t block further Fed easing, which remains a key support for gold and silver prices.”
Technical Outlook:
Gold’s long-term uptrend remains firmly bullish. With momentum building, analysts suggest $3,900+ is possible if the monthly rally continues. From a daily view, a strong bullish candle could drive prices through $3,826 resistance, with limited room for corrections as dip buyers dominate.
- Resistance: $3,840–$3,850
- Support: $3,810–$3,800
Oil
Oil dropped 3% on Monday as supply concerns eased. Brent –3.1% to $67.97/barrel, while WTI –3.45% to $63.45/barrel, pulling back from last Friday’s multi-month highs.
Sources said OPEC+ may confirm an additional 137,000 bpd increase in November, with production still nearly 500,000 bpd below target. Analysts see the shift toward market share as weakening fundamentals and reviving oversupply fears.
In a further bearish supply signal, Iraq resumed oil flows from its Kurdish region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port — the first time in 2.5 years — at a rate of 150,000–160,000 bpd, which could rise to 230,000 bpd.
Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist at Rystad Energy, noted: “With OPEC+ shifting focus to market share, oversupply concerns now dominate sentiment.”
Technical Outlook:
Crude remains in a mid-term consolidation, trading between $66.00–$60.80. Short-term, prices tested $65.80 resistance before retreating, with momentum shifting down after repeated failures at the upper band. MACD shows signs of warming bullish momentum, but trend bias remains range-bound.
- Resistance: $64.5–$65.5
- Support: $62.0–$61.0
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