Market Recap
Gold prices climbed on Thursday, supported by safe-haven demand amid volatile global equities and renewed fears of an AI stock bubble, even as US employment data came in strong. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped to a two-week low, weighed down by growing concerns over global supply and rising inventories in the United States.
Spot gold traded near $3,970 per ounce, while WTI crude hovered around $59.63 per barrel.
Gold
Despite robust ADP private payrolls data, gold gained over 1%, closing at $3,983.89/oz, while December gold futures rose 0.8% to $3,992.90/oz. Analysts said that even though strong jobs data typically suggests rates could stay higher for longer, the surge in equity volatility and AI bubble fears triggered a wave of risk aversion.
Traders noted that gold’s resilience under such conditions was encouraging for the bulls. Other precious metals joined the rally, silver, platinum, and palladium rose 2.2%, 1.7%, and 2.4%, respectively. Investors are also watching the US Supreme Court’s hearing on Trump’s tariff policies, which could add a new layer of policy uncertainty.
Gold Technical Outlook:
Gold posted a strong bullish candle yesterday, reclaiming key support near $3,940. However, resistance remains heavy near $3,985–$4,000, with the 20-day moving average acting as a ceiling. Until gold breaks firmly above this zone, analysts expect sideways-to-weak consolidation.
Short-term structure shows $4,000 as a critical pivot, below this, the bias remains mildly bearish. A retest of $3,940–$3,910 could offer short-term buying opportunities, while $3,995–$4,030 remains the preferred sell zone for short-term traders.
Gold Key Levels:
- Resistance: $4,000 – $4,030
- Support: $3,940 – $3,910
Suggested Approach:
Focus on selling into rallies, with selective buy entries on dips near support.
Crude Oil
Oil extended its losing streak Wednesday, with Brent and WTI falling 1.43% and 1.59% to $63.52 and $59.60 per barrel, respectively, both marking their lowest closes in two weeks. The decline came as US crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, reinforcing fears of an oversupplied market.
The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) data revealed weaker refining activity and higher imports, though a sharp drop in gasoline inventories helped cushion losses.
Geopolitical tensions also complicated the picture: Russia’s Tuapse port halted fuel exports after a Ukrainian drone strike, while Canada’s potential cancellation of oil and gas emission caps spurred concerns about increased long-term supply.
Technical Outlook:
Oil remains in a sideways trading range, with price consolidating near the lower boundary. The MACD indicator suggests lingering downside momentum, while moving averages show no clear directional bias. Analysts expect near-term consolidation between $57.50–$62.00 before a clearer breakout direction emerges.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $61.0 – $62.0
- Support: $58.5 – $57.5
Suggested Approach:
Look to sell near resistance zones and buy near key supports, keeping positions light amid range-bound volatility.
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