On Friday, spot gold traded near 4162 dollars per ounce. Prices edged slightly lower on Thursday as US Thanksgiving reduced market activity. Investors continued to focus on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, especially after Kevin Hassett emerged as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. Hassett is seen as strongly in favor of interest-rate cuts, drawing significant market attention.
WTI crude traded near 59 dollars per barrel as investors monitored progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the upcoming OPEC+ production policy meeting.
Gold
Spot gold slipped slightly on Thursday, pulling back from the nearly two-week high set in the previous session. Spot prices dipped 0.16 percent to close at 4157.22 dollars per ounce.
Carsten Menke of Julius Baer said: “We still expect the consolidation phase that began with the October pullback to continue. This correction is not completely finished yet.”
Since hitting an all-time high of 4381.21 dollars on October 20, gold has retraced about 5 percent but remains firmly above the key 4000-dollar level.
Analysts note that the fundamental backdrop for gold remains strong. Menke added: “The supportive factors have not changed. Slowing US growth and a softer dollar, persistent safe-haven demand, and strong central-bank buying continue to underpin the market.”
Gold Technical analysis:
Gold posted a small rebound and closed higher on Thursday, but overall volatility was limited. The session’s range was just 41 dollars, with 4173 acting as trendline resistance.
While the daily candlestick closed bullish, analysts warn against aggressive long positions unless price breaks and holds above the trendline.
On the four-hour chart, the triangular consolidation structure remains intact. Trendline resistance sits near 4173-4175. A confirmed breakout would open the door for further upside; failure would imply continued consolidation.
On the one-hour chart, prices are beginning to slip below short-term support and face pressure from short-term moving averages, indicating the possibility of a mild corrective move.
Given the Thanksgiving holiday and likely lower volatility, conservative traders may prefer to wait until after the holiday.
Today’s Gold outlook:
Gold trading is expected to favor selling rebounds and buying dips.
Upside short-term resistance: 4180-4200
Downside short-term support: 4140-4120
Crude Oil
Oil prices edged slightly higher in thin holiday trading as investors watched Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. With US markets shut for Thanksgiving, trading volume was subdued.
Brent crude rose 0.2 percent to 63.34 dollars per barrel.
WTI crude gained 0.8 percent to 59.10 dollars per barrel.
Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB, said the market remains both hopeful and cautious regarding renewed peace efforts. Ukrainian President Zelensky said Thursday that Ukrainian and US delegations would meet this week to draft proposals for discussions in Geneva aimed at achieving peace and securing Kyiv’s future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that the proposed US-Ukraine framework may serve as the basis for an agreement but emphasized that if no deal can be reached, Russia would achieve its objectives through military means.
According to three sources, OPEC+ may keep current output levels unchanged at Sunday’s meeting and is expected to agree on a framework for assessing members’ maximum production capacity. This expectation has helped support oil prices.
Technical analysis:
From the daily chart, oil remains in a secondary downtrend pattern. Three consecutive bearish candles show prices testing the prior low near 56.
MACD remains in a bearish cross near the zero line, with downside momentum gradually increasing. A clear break below 56 would shift the medium-term trend definitively lower.
On the one-hour chart, oil continues to trade within a range of 59.00-57.00. Prices are currently near the upper boundary, and MACD shows slightly stronger bullish momentum.
Intraday action is expected to remain range-bound, so a range-trading approach is preferred.
Today’s outlook:
Prefer buying dips and selling rebounds within the range.
Upside short-term resistance: 61.0-62.0
Downside short-term support: 58.0-57.0
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