On Tuesday, gold continued its pullback from Monday, dipping as much as 0.4% in early Asian trading to $3,351.97 per ounce. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index climbed 0.49%, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly a month and weighing on gold prices. International oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after surging nearly 2% in the previous session, as markets focused on potential supply risks.
Gold
Gold extended Monday’s correction on Tuesday, briefly dropping 0.4% to $3,351.97 per ounce during Asian trading hours. The dollar’s strength—its index rising 0.49% to post the biggest daily gain in almost a month—pressured gold prices. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s US PCE inflation data, which could set the stage for the next major directional move in gold.
The latest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remain the primary driver of recent gold volatility. Speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, Powell noted that risks in the US labor market are increasing, while inflation pressures persist. However, he emphasized that the Fed has not yet made a definitive policy decision. Markets interpreted these remarks as dovish, sharply boosting expectations for a September rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September cut has surged to over 84%, up significantly from 61.9% a month ago. This optimism pushed gold to a near two-week high last Friday, reflecting strong investor expectations for a looser monetary stance.
Analysts caution that while Powell’s comments reinforce the likelihood of rate cuts, uncertainty remains. A rebound in inflation or unexpectedly strong employment data could prompt the Fed to stay on hold.
Gold – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, gold prices initially dipped to test support near $3,360 during the Asian session before rebounding. The European session saw further upside momentum, lifting prices toward the $3,370 level before encountering resistance. During US trading, gold extended its advance to $3,376 before pulling back into consolidation. The daily candlestick closed as a small bearish candle, signaling continued range-bound movement.
Gold – Key Levels to Watch Today
Maintain a “buy-the-dip” approach on pullbacks.
- Upside Resistance: $3,370
- Downside Support: $3,360–$3,363
Crude Oil
International crude prices slipped slightly on Tuesday after a nearly 2% rally in the prior session, as markets kept an eye on potential supply risks.
Brent crude futures fell 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel, while WTI crude futures dropped 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel.
Investors await the latest US API inventory report, with expectations pointing to declines in crude and gasoline stocks, while distillate inventories may see a modest build. These figures could provide a short-term directional cue for oil prices.
Crude Oil – Technical Outlook
Yesterday, oil prices staged a strong bullish rebound from range-bound trade, accelerating higher around the $64 level and breaking above key resistance to briefly pierce the $65 mark before closing near the highs. The daily candlestick formed a strong bullish bar, confirming upside momentum.
Crude Oil – Key Levels to Watch Today
Continue favoring long positions on dips.
- Upside Resistance: $65
- Downside Support: $63.50–$63.70
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