On Monday, the three major US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow dropping over 340 points while Nvidia hit a new all-time high, helping the Nasdaq finish higher. Investors are closely watching the “Trump trade” and the upcoming earnings season, with major companies like Tesla and Amazon set to report this week.
The US presidential election is approaching, scheduled for November 5, 2024. For Wall Street, the race between Harris and Trump is adding more market volatility. Currently, the “Trump trade” is back in focus, with JPMorgan’s latest report noting that hedge funds are making large bets on a Republican victory.
Additionally, market attention is on speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that she sees no reason to stop cutting rates and expects the Fed to continue adjusting policy to fit the current economic conditions and prevent further weakening in the labor market. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed support for slowing the pace of rate cuts.
The 10-year US Treasury yield, often referred to as the “anchor for global asset pricing,” has been rising since October and is hovering near its highest point since July, closing Monday at 4.20%.
On the corporate front, Nvidia shares soared over 4% on Monday, once again hitting a record high, with its market cap surpassing $3.5 trillion, inching closer to Apple’s $3.6 trillion valuation. Several Wall Street firms have recently raised their price targets for Nvidia. Bank of America raised its target from $165 to $190, Goldman Sachs lifted its target from $135 to $150, and Bernstein increased its price target to $155.
US Stocks
Fundamental Analysis:
Large-cap tech stocks were mostly higher, with Nvidia surging more than 4% to a new record high, Netflix rising over 1%, and Microsoft, Amazon, and Google posting modest gains.
Bank stocks, on the other hand, were weaker, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both down over 2%, while Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan dropped more than 1%. Boeing climbed more than 3% after reaching a tentative new agreement with its union.
Spirit Airlines surged 53% after reaching a debt refinancing extension agreement with Bank of America.
Chinese ADRs mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.80%. Baidu fell more than 2%, while Vipshop, Alibaba, NetEase, Nio, and Futu Holdings dropped more than 1%.
Tencent Music, Weibo, JD.com, iQiyi, and Full Truck Alliance saw minor declines, while XPeng gained over 3%. Bilibili, Pinduoduo, and Li Auto posted modest gains.
Technical Analysis:
Market Trends:
- Dow Jones fell 344.31 points, or 0.80%, to 42,931.60
- Nasdaq rose 50.45 points, or 0.27%, to 18,540.01
- S&P 500 dropped 10.69 points, or 0.18%, to 5,853.98
Hong Kong Stock Market
Fundamental Analysis:
Hong Kong’s three major indices all posted gains. In the tech sector, Meituan climbed over 3%, Xiaomi rose more than 1%, while Baidu dropped more than 2%.
China’s brokerage stocks were strong, with China Merchants Securities rising over 5%, and defense stocks also rallied, with China Avionics Systems climbing more than 7%. The dairy, pharmaceutical outsourcing, and home appliance sectors also saw gains.
Auto stocks led the charge, with Geely and Li Auto rising more than 7%. Market data showed a strong performance in the global electric vehicle (EV) market in 2024.
According to the latest data from market research firm Rho Motion, global EV sales in September reached 1.7 million units, with China contributing 1.1 million units, representing 66% of the total.
Cumulative sales from January to September reached 11.5 million units globally, with China accounting for 7.2 million units, marking a 35% year-over-year growth and further solidifying its dominance in the global EV market.
Technical Analysis:
- Hang Seng Index rose 0.52% to 20,585.51
- Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.41% to 4,555.08
- Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.72% to 7,393.64
FTSE China A50 Index
Fundamental Analysis:
Mainland China’s three major indices opened higher. As of midday, total market turnover reached 12.218 trillion yuan, down by 2.062 trillion from the previous day. Over 3,700 stocks across the markets posted gains.
Sector-wise, wind power equipment, short-video games, and rare-earth magnets were the biggest gainers, while Huawei-related and data security stocks saw slight declines.
Wind power stocks led the charge, with Titan Wind Energy hitting limit-up, Haili Wind Power nearly reaching a 20% limit-up, and companies like Goldwind, Times New Material, and Xinjiang Goldwind seeing gains of over 7%.
Short-video game stocks were also strong, with Chinese Online, Skyworth Digital, and SG Group all hitting limit-up. Rare-earth magnet stocks experienced mid-day momentum, with Huayang New Materials and Creative Resources hitting limit-up.
Meanwhile, cross-border payment stocks retreated, with Aierong Software, a tenfold gainer on the Beijing Stock Exchange, dropping more than 13%.
Technical Analysis:
Market Trends:
- Shanghai Composite rose 0.53% to 3,285.49
- Shenzhen Component rose 0.91% to 10,566.68
- ChiNext Index rose 0.36% to 2,218.22
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