Federal Reserve

Rising rates, softer hiring and a stronger AI cycle shape the Q4 2026 market outlook, putting yields, oil, Japan and AI guidance in focus.

The Fed, ECB and BOJ all hiked, yet markets barely flinched. Is higher for longer the new global regime? What it means for yields, stocks, the yen and gold.

US CPI met expectations, yet Fed still raised rates. See how core CPI, PPI, oil and Treasury yields changed the inflation ans rate outlook. 

US NFP beat expectations in August, but markets remain focused on CPI. See what the jobs report, Fed policy and Treasury yields could mean for gold.

US Treasury yields remain high as term premium, fiscal risks and debt pressures rise. Could higher borrowing costs trigger a US debt crisis? 

US July CPI cooled as Fed rate-hike bets faded, putting gold and tech stocks in focus as markets reassess real yields and liquidity. 

July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, weakening Q3 rate-hike bets as labor demand cooled and USDJPY faced intervention-driven pressure. 

US June CPI cooled below expectations as inflation pressure eased beyond energy. Rate-hike fears may still be overpriced despite oil and Middle East risks.

Explore the 2026 mid-year market outlook as AI drives growth, liquidity shapes risk assets, and traders watch the Fed, US dollar, gold, oil and FX markets. 

May 2026 non-farm payrolls beat expectations, but World Cup hiring, weak wage growth, inflation pressure and fragile consumer confidence may keep the Fed from hiking rates.